Scenario Analysis in Karlsruhe: Exploring New Inferential Patterns of the Federal Constitutional Court

This paper examines scenario analysis, a new argumentation technique used by the BVerfGE in recent high-profile cases, such as the so-called climate protection case (Klimaschutz) and other decisions on the fundamental right to intergenerational justice (Grundrecht auf Generationengerechitgkeit). After explaining the basic inferential structures involved in scenario analysis (e.g., identifying stakeholders and driving forces and isolating focal points, to name a few), the paper outlines a normative model for rational scenario design. In particular, the argument focuses on denoising and debiasing techniques to avoid unwanted variability, statistically unsound reasoning, and unrealistic scenarios. The normative model is used as a lens for evaluating the arguments developed by the BVerfGE.